Technology Evolves Exponentially

Technological evolution speeds up exponentially because each generation of technology improves over the last the rate of progress from version to version speeds up. And this gap is widening very quickly over time.

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Postulated by ray kurzweil in 1999 the law of accelerating returns states that the rate of progress in an ecosystem that learns via evolution i e.

Technology evolves exponentially. But the point is that technology with the power of computing at its heart grows exponentially not linearly. Technology grows exponentially the doubling of computer processing speed every 18 months known as moore s law is just one manifestation of the greater trend that all technological. Production gets faster after each step.

To see this imagine making a chair with hand tools power tools and finally assembly lines. Iteratively via trial and error increases exponentially. More importantly the more advanced such a system becomes the faster its rate of progress grows.

If companies develop linearly and technology evolves exponentially we see a gap between the two a gap between the company s actual value delivery and what would be possible technology wise.

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